Tropical Weather Outlook

ATLANTIC OCEAN & CARIBBEAN SEA
ABNT20 KNHC 261743
YUCATAN & QUINTANA ROO, MEXICO 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sun Sep 26 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane 
Sam, located about 850 miles east-southeast of the northern Leeward 
Islands.

Showers and thunderstorms have become a little better organized 
today in association with a surface trough that is the remnants of 
Peter. Upper-level winds are marginally conducive for some slow 
development of this disturbance over the next couple of days as it 
moves northeastward at about 10 mph. By midweek, environmental 
conditions are expected to become unfavorable for further 
development. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

A tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of Africa on 
Monday.  Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for 
gradual development thereafter, and a tropical depression could form 
by midweek while the system moves westward to west-northwestward at 
10 to 15 mph over the far eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

A broad area of low pressure is expected to form over the eastern or 
central tropical Atlantic early this week, to the west of the 
tropical wave that will be moving off the coast of Africa.  
Thereafter, environmental conditions are forecast to support some 
development of this disturbance, and a tropical depression could 
form by late this week while it moves westward at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.


Forecaster Latto
      
Tropical Weather Updates