Tropical Weather Outlook

ATLANTIC OCEAN & CARIBBEAN SEA
ABNT20 KNHC 210536
YUCATAN & QUINTANA ROO, MEXICO 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Tue Oct 21 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Caribbean Sea (AL98):
Satellite, radar, and surface observations indicate that the broad 
area of low pressure over the central Caribbean Sea continues to 
become better defined, with winds near 45 mph, though it still lacks 
a well-defined center.  Environmental conditions are forecast to 
become more conducive for development, and a tropical storm is 
expected to form later today while the system moves slowly over the 
central Caribbean Sea.  Heavy rainfall and gusty winds are possible 
over portions of the ABC Islands during the next couple of days.  
Interests in Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Jamaica, and Cuba should 
monitor the progress of this system as there is a risk of heavy rain 
and flooding, strong winds, and rough surf later this week.  For 
additional information on this system, including Gale Warnings, 
please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather 
Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

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High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php


Forecaster Blake